Any thoughts on the recent quarter? Here is something about seasonality for the 10K:
"We believe this new pattern of testing earlier in the year and the effect on variable fee license revenues may not continue in 2022 or even beyond 2022. However, in January 2022 compared to December 2021, fixed-fee monthly license revenues increased by approximately 1% while variable fee license revenues (i.e., fee-per-test) increased by approximately 87%. Comparing January 2022 to January 2021, fixed-fee monthly license revenues increased by approximately 13%, while variable fee license revenues increased by approximately 6%"
Going into the new year, the fee-per-test revenue nearly doubled, while fixed-fee testing grew ever slightly. That's interesting to see. Definitely illustrates the seasonality in fixed-fee testing.
I wasn't comfortable with the valuation given a lack of progress on some of the trials. I believe their biggest indications are 3-5 years and market was losing patience with companies trading on things 3-5 years out. Anything at > 15x Sales isn't cheap
Understandable - it's likely to be dead money for a while (although the first biologic approval - AADC, presumably - may spike it). I'm just relieved to hear that there was no fundamental thesis-crack (I'm always paying close attention to what's going on and was thinking that maybe I managed to miss something). I know you owned it around $7, so it was inching close to the danger zone for you; I was fortunate enough to begin buying it about 3 years ago and own it now (a substantial position) at an avg. of around $5. I totally understand a decision to exit given the trajectory and apparent expectations (like you, I already rode it up to $31 and back once), but, assuming the thesis continues to hold up, I intend to ride it out through this economic storm (together with the small handful of die-hard FinTwit scragglers remaining [the few, I suspect, that actually understand it and didn't pay upwards of $30 for it] 😏).
Thanks for your time, Adu. I always appreciate your style of thought/analysis.
Any thoughts on the recent quarter? Here is something about seasonality for the 10K:
"We believe this new pattern of testing earlier in the year and the effect on variable fee license revenues may not continue in 2022 or even beyond 2022. However, in January 2022 compared to December 2021, fixed-fee monthly license revenues increased by approximately 1% while variable fee license revenues (i.e., fee-per-test) increased by approximately 87%. Comparing January 2022 to January 2021, fixed-fee monthly license revenues increased by approximately 13%, while variable fee license revenues increased by approximately 6%"
Going into the new year, the fee-per-test revenue nearly doubled, while fixed-fee testing grew ever slightly. That's interesting to see. Definitely illustrates the seasonality in fixed-fee testing.
Did you see this article posted in 2015 about SMLR?
https://geoinvesting.com/semler-scientific-smlr-disruptive-innovation-on-cusp-of-growth/
You exited CLPT. What was your thinking there?
I wasn't comfortable with the valuation given a lack of progress on some of the trials. I believe their biggest indications are 3-5 years and market was losing patience with companies trading on things 3-5 years out. Anything at > 15x Sales isn't cheap
Understandable - it's likely to be dead money for a while (although the first biologic approval - AADC, presumably - may spike it). I'm just relieved to hear that there was no fundamental thesis-crack (I'm always paying close attention to what's going on and was thinking that maybe I managed to miss something). I know you owned it around $7, so it was inching close to the danger zone for you; I was fortunate enough to begin buying it about 3 years ago and own it now (a substantial position) at an avg. of around $5. I totally understand a decision to exit given the trajectory and apparent expectations (like you, I already rode it up to $31 and back once), but, assuming the thesis continues to hold up, I intend to ride it out through this economic storm (together with the small handful of die-hard FinTwit scragglers remaining [the few, I suspect, that actually understand it and didn't pay upwards of $30 for it] 😏).
Thanks for your time, Adu. I always appreciate your style of thought/analysis.